Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Stock Market Crash Imminent?


 
 
I have been suggesting to every one of my clients, everyone who attends my speeches, and everyone who reads my blog or receives my newsletter for almost two and a half years, that a stock market crash is imminent. For two and a half years I have been wrong.

I haven't gotten  in trouble with prospects and clients because I haven't told them, I asked/suggested to them. They decided whether the information fit their circumstances or did not. They then acted accordingly based on THEIR belief, not mine.

However, clients, friends, and other agents/planners have loved showing me that I was and continue to be wrong. Please, I don’t take it personally nor am I offended.  It was only an opinion based on probabilities. I don’t have all the facts. I have not received one call from the President, the Secretary of the Treasury or the Chair of the Federal Reserve. To be completely honest, if they don’t know what’s going to happen, how could I?

Isn’t that the point? If the probability of danger is increasing exponentially, ask yourself this question; “If no one knows what will happen, should you be real aggressive financially or should you guard against catastrophe and learn to become more of a financial counter puncher; always putting yourself in position to take advantage of any bad things that could happen?

Many of you have feared taking my recommendations because they are too conservative and you actually might be lose out on some gains by being too conservative.

Ah, but take a moment, because the math simply shows a different story.

Let’s start with the last two and on half years. These are the years that many declared me “Too

cautious! Too conservative!” "Had I listened to you I would have missed out of some stellar years in the market."

Opinions are not worth much, so let us remove the opinion and look at the math.....

On May 1st, 2013 the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 15,115.57. On September 28th, 2015 the Dow closed at 16,001.89. In 2.3 years the Dow increased 5.86 percent. The average return for that time was 2.55 percent.

The Dow has dropped from 18,300 or so in the last 30 to 45 days. No one would have gotten out. No one. (That bring up another question:  Have you ever heard a financial planner say it is a good time to get out of the market?  Or heard those same planners say it is a bad time to get into the market? )  Also, we need to consider dividends.  The dividend on the companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is barely over one percent.

I have several products I recommend, that if you owned during that time frame would have approximated or even beaten that return without the volatility and risk. (Put fear and worry in place of volatility and risk.)

The math becomes even more interesting and counter to what you have heard elsewhere when we increase the length of time we do the measuring.

Here’s another example: On September 1, 2007 the Dow closed at 13,895.63. Again, on September 28, 2015 the Dow closed at 16,001.89. That is an increase of 15.16 percent for those eight years. That is an average return of 1.90 percent. Even adding in dividends, the return is still barely over 3 percent and that is before fees and taxes.

Every product I provide including the "horrible place to invest money," cash value life insurance would have equaled or beaten those returns with lower or no taxes and after fees. WOW!

Just one more; on December 1, 1999 the month before the supposed Y2K trauma, the Dow closed at 11,497.12. It closed on September 28, 2015 at 16,001.89. That is a 39.18 percent increase for those 15.75 years or a 2.49 percent average annual return. Even if I included dividends, my clients have enjoyed better gross and net returns.
 
 

Monday, October 19, 2015

What does Former Fed Chaiman Ben Bernanke know you do not?


There's no such thing as a free lunch.
Particularly when it comes to getting a few hours of Ben Bernanke's time. The former chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve charges from $200,000 to $400,000 for speaking engagements at private equity firms, hedge funds, banks, and trade associations around the world.
However, "Helicopter Ben" (also known as "Bearnanke") has made a few pro-bono appearances and speeches in which he provides some great advice on financial matters. Here are the five best pieces of financial wisdom from Ben Bernanke.

1. Be Smart About Student Loans
Student loans are a key issue for Millennials, On the one hand, workers with a bachelor's degree earn about $1 million more in their lifetimes than those with just a high school diploma. On the other, 2014 college graduates owe an average of $33,000 in student loans.
"People have to be smart about how much money they take out," Bernanke recommends to young people. This short piece of advice is very powerful for retirement planning reasons. Your initial employment years are key for retirement savings because money invested then has the most time to take advantage of interest compounding. If student loan payments are preventing you from maximizing retirement savings, you're at a disadvantage.
Bernanke points out that you must find and talk with a student loan adviser on a regular basis. Remember that education is an investment, so that means it must provide returns. Keep student loans in check, live a frugal lifestyle during your college years, and choose your major wisely.

2. Remember Money Isn't Everything
During a graduation speech at Princeton, Bernanke gave this suggestion to the class of 2013: "Remember that money is a means, not an end." He was not saying money does not matter, rather there are other factors to consider when making decisions such as career.
More than half of Americans are dissatisfied with their jobs. While workers making more than $125,000 are the happiest with their jobs, there are still about 35 percent of them who are dissatisfied.
How can this even be possible? Turns out that the two criteria that make people happiest at work are non-monetary. "Interest in work" and "people at work" were chosen by 59 percent and 60.6 percent of workers, respectively.
Bernanke is right in warning that choosing a career based only on money without consideration on love for the work or desire to make difference is a recipe for unhappiness. Give appropriate consideration to these factors, as well.

3. Evaluate If Annuities/life Insurance Make Sense for You

During his four-year tenure as Federal Reserve Chairman, Ben Bernanke had one of the toughest financial jobs in the world.
So, it's no surprise he kept his investments simple. His two largest assets are two annuities (Inside life insurance companies), TIAA Traditional and CREF Stock Large Cap Blend, each valued at between $500,001 to $1,000,000 as of 2007.
High net worth individuals, workers close to retirement age, and workers with a late start in the retirement saving race could all benefit from owning annuities for four reasons.
·         Life Insurance contracts allow your money to grow tax advantaged, create a source of income for retirement as well as pass to the next generation income tax free.

·         Unlike other retirement accounts, annuities and life insurance have no contribution limits. This means that high net worth individuals could put away more for retirement than the $18,000 limit set by the IRS.

·         Immediate annuities allow workers close to retirement to stuff away more money in their nest eggs and start receiving distributions after a short period of time.

·         Some annuities offer a guaranteed stream of income, which is key for those close to retirement age or who have very low tolerance to investment risk.

Owning annuities isn't for everybody, but evaluating whether or not annuities should be part of your retirement planning definitely is. We need to talk.

4. Improve Your Financial Literacy
"Financial education supports not only individual well-being, but also the economic health of our nation," said Bernanke during a teacher town hall meeting in 2012.
Do not kid yourself, Millennials aren't the only ones in dire need of improving their financial education. More than a fifth of Americans think that winning the lottery is the most practical way to accumulate wealth.
Bernanke advises us to improve not only our own financial literacy but also that of our children. He recommends that our focus shouldn't be on memorizing financial products or calculations, but learning essential skills and concepts necessary to make major financial choices. For example, to shop around for a loan to get the lowest interest rate and to start saving early for retirement. Thanks uncle Ben for putting in a plug for me, my blog, and my newsletter.

5. Minimize Costs
When discussing raising gas prices and their effect on the American worker, Bernanke said "it must be awfully frustrating to get a small raise at work and then have it all eaten by a higher cost of commuting."
Whether it's the sale price of your home or the size of your nest egg, you can't always have full control on the returns of your investments. However, you always have much more command on the cost of your investments and purchases. Minimize any type of fees so that you give your investments a better fighting chance. Wow and what is one of the biggest misunderstandings in the financial sector?  THE FEES YOUR PAY IN MUTUAL FUNDS......but that is a topic for another post.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Driving Blind!

Take a look at this picture:


I know this will sound rhetorical, but does this make any sense?

Given what I have read and what I have published in this blog and elsewhere, driving with a blind fold makes as much sense to me as the old, tired out, down right misleading mantra: "Buy Term and Invest the Rest."  I have said it and thought it for more than a decade, but now I have an academic to back me up.

Professor David Babbel of the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania has published a study declaring that the strategy categorically does not work. Listen to what he says, and I quote:
“They rent the term, lapse it and spend the difference.”

This study is academic. Professor Babbel  uses rigorous economic modeling and completely disputes "buy term and invest the difference" and shares how the values of his own life insurance cash value have outpaced inflation.

The article and study provide many additional reasons why cash value life insurance is a truly
wonderful way to save for retirement. It explains all the peripheral benefits you receive on the
way to retirement. (If you do not have a clue what some of those reasons and benefits are you have either not read what I have published or just forgotten. Time for a refresher)

Dr. Babbel previously worked for Goldman Sachs. He is a highly honored and
credentialed person who believes in and owns cash value life insurance and annuities.

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20150728/BLOG05/150729897/new-life-insurance-study-debunks-buy-term-invest-the-difference

Time to take the blindfold off and give me a call or text (435) 764-1451

 


Thursday, October 1, 2015

81 questions for you to consider

These are arranged into some categories to help you organize your thoughts.


Social Security

1) Will it be there for me when I retire?

2) What is the best age to take Social Security to maximize my benefits?

3) Will Social Security be taxable?

4)  Is there a way to prevent that?

 

Medicare

5)  Should I buy a Medicare supplement or Medicare Advantage coverage?

6) Will the starting age for Medicare be raised to age 67 and what impact will that have on me financially?

7) Do I have to take Part D prescription drug coverage if I don‟t take any medication?

 

Medicaid

8) How will the states afford Medicaid when the federal government stops fully funding the new

Medicaid recipients?

9) Will those extra costs be passed onto me even if I am not on Medicaid?

10) Do I have to completely spend down all my assets to become eligible for Medicaid if I go into a nursing home?

11) Will the Medicaid program continue to grow and where will we get the money to fund it?

 

Interest on the debt

12) Do you realize that interest on the debt that our country owes is the fifth largest expenditure?

13) Do you know that the Congressional Budget Office predicts that the debt will rise to $57 trillion by 2035?

14) If the interest rate is the historical 5 percent number, how will we afford to pay all the

interest on that debt?

15) Do you also realize that by 2030 we will only take in enough tax revenue to

pay for Social Security, Medicare and interest on the debt?

16) Should you reduce or eliminate your dependence on the government under these circumstances?

 

Deficit

17) If the government spends $3.8 trillion and it only takes in $3.1 trillion in 2016, won‟t that

dramatically add to the debt?

18) What programs and benefits will be reduced or eliminated if the deficit increases?

19) Will deficits at the same county, city and municipality level also cause loss of benefits, tax increases or combinations of both and could it even cause those entities to “borrow”

more money to continue to provide services. What impact would those decisions have on your

financial future?

 

War, defense and terrorism costs

20) These costs are the second or third biggest expense in our national budget. If you include the

costs for Homeland Security and the Transportation Security Administration they are easily

second; if you don't, they are third.

21) With the possibility of terrorism on our soil, will these costs increase or decrease?

22) With the world experiencing serious financial issues could a war or serious military event be almost expected?

23) How will we defend our borders and our interest and the interests of our allies without continuing to spend more and more?

24) Will military and defense spending offset some domestic spending?

25) Will that increase my taxes and lower my benefits?

 

Healthcare reform

26) Will Obamacare increase or decrease my healthcare costs?

27) Will it increase or decrease my access to care?

28) Does the Affordable Care Act “shift” costs from one group of payers to another group of payers?

29) Will I be penalized because I have really good coverage or if I decide not to cover myself?

30) Could this legislation be repealed if there was a change in the party that is in power?

31) What effect would that have on my healthcare coverage?

 

Unemployment

32) Is the unemployment number accurate or has the government manipulated it?

33) Does the unemployment rate include you any more if you have received all the unemployment benefits you are entitled to and you are still unemployed?

34) Is the unemployment number closer to 11 percent and would that increase if we had another economic disaster?

35) What impact would that have on all the retirement and savings accounts of all those people if they lose their jobs?

36) Would we have to take care of them in retirement if they have no money and reduced Social Security because they didn't work?

37) Do you realize that we have less people employed than we did in the year 2000 and we have added over 20 million people to the population since then?

 

Inflation and Deflation

38) Which will happen first: deflation or inflation?

39) Which is more dangerous?

40 If prices of commodities, (stocks, bonds, real estate, gold, silver, copper, etc.) first deflate or decrease in price will the government take steps to artificially re-inflate those prices causing both real danger and opportunity?

41) If even moderate inflation results, how do we take advantage of it to maintain our purchasing power?

42) Are there ways to protect ourselves from deflation and inflation and even better are there strategies I can employ to take advantage of deflation and inflation?

 

Healthcare costs including nursing homes

43) Do you realize a recent study says an American family of four pays $24,671 per year for health care?

44) If a conservative growth rate of 6 percent is used do you realize you will pay $50,000 per

year by 2025 and $75,000 per year by 2030?

45) How many Americans will be able to afford that?

46) What will happen to healthcare in America?

47) Could healthcare costs be America‟s neutron, hydrogen, atomic bomb that destroys our economy?

48) What about Nursing home costs?

49) If they are predicted to be $250,000 annually by 2025 and 75 percent of Americans have less than $28,000 in assets, who will take care of the 75 percent of people over 65 who are predicted to require long term health care?

50) Won't most of the caregivers in America have to be family members? What kind of financial, physical, emotional, intellectual and spiritual damage will having to be caregiver cause to families?

51) Is there a better, more efficient way to prepare for these costs?

52) Do you think most Americans realize that 75 percent of their lifetime healthcare costs are usually incurred in the last years of their life?

53) Ask how they feel about that and what do they think should be done?

 

Infrastructure

54) Do you realize most of the bridges in this country are in disrepair?

55) Should we fix them?

56) Can our highways handle all the additional traffic without upgrades?

57) Do our airports, train stations, bus depots need modernization or at a minimum repair?

58) Are we certain that our electrical grid can handle the increasing load being put on it and is it protected from terrorist acts?

59) Can out ports handle all the additional shipping and do we have the infrastructure to protect our borders?

60) What does that cost?

61) Should we spend the money?

62) Where or from whom do we get the money?

63) If you have money will they take your money to pay for these things?

64) Will these things have an impact on the success or failure of your financial future?

 

Natural disasters

65)Do you believe another disaster like hurricane Katrina could occur in our country?

66) Do you realize it is more than a decade since Katrina and New Orleans has still not repaired or replaced all the damage?

67) Will droughts and tornadoes and snowstorms and floods continue to become more powerful and create more destruction because of ever changing weather patterns?

68) Where will we get the money to replace the forests and the homes and the businesses destroyed by fires, floods, tornadoes and hurricanes, etc.?

69) What will happen when we finally have another even more serious earthquake, not in a place we expect like California, but in the middle of the country, in Chicago or St. Louis?

70) Who pays those clean-up costs?

71) Will people who don't have any money pay these costs or will people who have money pay these costs?

72) How can you, your family and your business stay in control of how much will be taken by the government for these costs?

 

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA

73) Do you realize that these entities have begun to make the same kinds of loans again that caused the housing crisis of 2007 and 2008?

74) Do you realize that the FHA has only about one percent of the assets they would need to protect against defaults?

75) Doesn't that mean if two percent of these loans default that they are bankrupt?

76) If that happens again, doesn't that mean that the taxpayer has to bail them out again?

77) Aren't these programs used by the government to artificially stimulate the economy?

78) Aren't they back to giving home loans to people who really can't afford them?

79) Won't the government become more and more dependent on people who have money?

79) Are you okay with that or do you want to exert some control while you still can?

 

80)  Do you want to protect yourself or keep going the way you are?
81)  Do you want more answers?

 

Medicare - Can it Last?


Tom Hegna, an economist, always says that longevity is not just a risk, it is a risk multiplier. Nothing could be truer for the Medicare program. In 1965 When the Medicare program began, life expectancy was age 70. (In case you missed the first part of this story: go here.) In 2015 life expectancy is in the mid 80's. Medicare was not designed to pay benefits for 20, 30 and now even 40 years.

A few sobering facts:
1)  A 65 year old male currently pays in around $70,000 in Medicare taxes over his lifetime.
2)  A female pays in the same amount.
3) That male receives $197,000 in lifetime Medicare benefits.
4) The woman receives $230,000.

Conclusion: Medicare takes in a lot less revenue than it is paying in benefits. With current zero
percent interest rates it is impossible to make up the difference.

Another problem is that healthcare costs are rising dramatically faster than inflation. If the healthcare inflation rate is 6 percent and the inflation rate is 2 percent, healthcare costs are increasing three time faster than anything else. (How much did your health care premiums go up this last year?  By how much are they going up this year?)  In seven years Medicare will cost this country $1 trillion per year and the costs are rising.

What is the annual budget of the U.S. government? Answer:  $3.8 trillion. The unfunded
liabilities for Social Security and Medicare are $96 trillion.

Please tell me, where we will the government get that money. Higher taxes? Lower benefits? How about just create the money out of thin air, i.e. just print the money? If the program is going to last, something will happen.

Now it is time for you to make a choice:
A) Wait until the government harms you.
B) Build financial independence?

Let's talk.

Articles: http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-perspective/072815-763828-medicare-medicaid-anniversary-reminds-us-of-programs-failures.htm?mc_cid=99d0060fea&mc_eid=22cfe9edbc

http://www.fool.com/retirement/general/2015/08/02/it-could-be-time-to-say-bye-bye-to-medicare.aspx?source=isesitlnk0000001&mrr=1.00

The Truth About Social Security


The Social Security and Medicare Trustees just issued their annual report. In it, they claim Social Security will go bankrupt in 2034. One year later than last year. Medicare will go bankrupt in 2030, also one year later than last year's report. (Medicare is a much more serious economic problem which I will discuss in another post.)

There are many reasons that the Trustee's report about these programs is inaccurate and they
downright approach the characterization of absolute lies. I will highlight only three.



First, a side bar to put your mind at ease for a moment.... Before explaining why Social Security will go bankrupt far sooner than is being predicted, it is important to explain what is meant by “going bankrupt”. Social Security and Medicare are both “pay-as-you-go” programs. Everyone's paychecks has FICA tax or Social Security tax and Medicare tax withdrawn every pay period. If you are self-employed, you pay both the employer and employee portion of Social Security tax. If all the reserves are depleted the money that is withdrawn from our paychecks for Social Security is enough to provide 77 percent of the promised benefits. The difference has always been made up by the trust fund.

The reason you should not worry about the Social Security shortfall is that the difference will be made up out of the general revenues of the government. There are currently 100 million Americans over age 50 who will demand that to be done. By 2030, there will be 130 million people over age 50 who will require their elected officials the preserve their Social Security benefits at all cost.

Ok back to the reasons:

Probably the biggest reason why the Trustees are severely inaccurate is life expectancy. The Trustees use 75 years as the life expectancy in their calculations. Currently a male's life expectancy is 86 years. A female's is 89 years. As an estimate an additional two TRILLION dollars is added to the shortfall for every year difference between what is being used and reality. WOW!

The second reason is  the Trustees use a much higher growth rate than almost anyone thinks is achievable. The Congressional Budget Office believes two percent average is a stretch. Many even believe deflation or no growth is possible; yet, the Trustees use 3.1 percent as an average. Reality check? We haven't had 3 percent growth in a decade. Please remember, we are in one of the longest bull markets in history. Where will this growth come from?

The third reason is the subsidy structure of Obamacare.  This structure is causing people to work less hours. Less hours means less pay.  Less pay mean less paid in FICA taxes.  Less FICA taxes collected, less going into social security.

There are other reasons, but why beat a dead horse over and over?

Don't you think we should talk?

Here are a few articles to back up this article: http://news.investors.com/blogs-capital-hill/072815-763757-social-security-trustees-report-relies-on-dubious-assumption.htm?p=2

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/DavidStockman/David-Stockman-Social-Security-entitlement-bankrupt/2015/07/31/id/664828/